华安基金固定收益部总经理,华安强债、华安现金富利基金经理黄勤先生日前接受道琼斯新闻社采访,该报道在昨日的华尔街日报网站刊发。
上海(道琼斯)-中国基金公司的资深基金经理表示,中国人民银行应该考虑增加每周的票据发行以利于为同业银行拆借成本提供一个强有力的基准,同时,助于实现利率市场化的长期目标。
华安基金固定收益部总经理黄勤在接受采访时表示,在中国人民银行进行利率市场化之前,将不会有这么一个好的基准。华安基金是国内最大的基金管理公司之一,2010年末管理资产826亿元人民币(125亿美元)。在固定收益类投资上,华安基金管理着三只债券基金和一只货币市场基金。
黄勤认为,中国缺少一个具有代表性的短期基准筹资利率来为不同的利率产品定价。七天回购协议率通常用在中国银行同业拆借市场,但是它极其不稳定,难以精确地反映经济和市场状况。
另一个指标--由16家主要银行共同决定的上海银行同业拆借利率,即Shibor,他认为,不具有交易性,并且对于16家银行以外的投资者,通常很难在此层次上进行拆借。
"我认为中国人民银行进行利率改革初步阶段的一项任务是增加公开市场操作的频率,从而使得收益率能够更好的反映供需情况"。
中国人民银行每周进行两次公开市场操作来收紧或注入流动性,但是由于在售的票据数量较少,近几个月来,一级市场上票据的的收益率显著滞后二级市场。这周,央行计划卖出价值20亿的票据,远远小于之前中国人民银行销售的总价数百亿元的票据。
黄勤表示,中国利率掉期市场的高投机性,正是非有效的基准市场利率造成的结果之一。
在中国,他不认为掉期能够有效的对冲风险,因为没有一个好的参考利率,掉期价格通常是严重扭曲的。
在一个IRS交易中,参与者进行固定和浮动利率的掉期。希望对冲高利率的投资者需要支付固定利率来获得浮动利率,认为利率下降的的参与者则将获得固定收益利率、支付浮动利率。
由于有效对冲工具的缺失,黄勤表示,在加息周期结束之前,他不会增持债券持有量。他还补充道,中国人民银行的政策性利率之一---中国一年期存款利率,可能从3%增加到3.5%。
黄勤还说,华安将为增持人民币的离岸投资者研发低风险债券基金, 如作为人民币国际进程的一部分,近期相关部门可能开放新的投资渠道以进行人民币国际化的进程。
"许多外国央行和企业都持有人民币,并且他们很希望能够投资到中国的债券市场。"
自从2009年9月份中国安排人民币用于多边贸易和投资试点之后,海外企业持有的人民币已经上升,这也是政府试图推动人民币成为全球货币并减少对美元依赖的一部分。
附原文:
SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--The People's Bank of China should consider increasing the number of its weekly bill sales to help create a stronger benchmark for interbank funding costs and aid the country's long-term goal of having market-determined interest rates, said a senior fund manager at a Chinese firm.
"China won't have a good benchmark until the PBOC liberalizes the interest rate system," Huang Qin, general manager of Huaan Fund Management Co.'s fixed-income department, said in an interview. Huaan is one of China's largest fund management companies, with CNY82.6 billion ($12.5 billion) worth of assets under management as of the end of 2010. It manages three bond funds and one money market fund among other investments.
China lacks a representative short-term benchmark funding rate that can be used to price various interest rate products. The seven-day repurchase agreement rate is often used as a reference in China's interbank market, but it can be extremely volatile and fails to reflect economic or market fundamentals accurately, Huang said.
Another reference, the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate, or Shibor, is collectively set by 16 major banks, but it is non-tradable and investors outside the 16 banks often find it impossible to borrow or lend at any Shibor levels, he said.
"I think one of the things that the PBOC will consider for the early-stage interest rate reform is to increase the frequency of open-market operations so that the yields on its bills will better reflect supply and demand," Huang said.
The PBOC carries out open-market operations twice a week to withdraw or inject liquidity, but the yields of its auctioned bills have lagged those in the secondary market in recent months because of the small quantity of bills on offer. The central bank plans to sell CNY2 billion worth of bills this week, much smaller than PBOC bill sales in the past that have totaled tens of billions of yuan.
China's highly speculative interest rate swap market is one of the results of not having an effective benchmark market interest rate, Huang said.
He said he doesn't believe swaps in China offer a useful hedge against risk, because without a good reference rate, the pricing of swaps is often severely distorted.
In an IRS transaction, participants swap fixed and floating interest-rate streams. A participant that wants to bet on or hedge against higher rates will pay a fixed rate and receive a floating rate. Those betting on or hedging against a fall in rates will receive a fixed rate and pay a floating rate.
Partly due to the absence of effective hedging tools, Huang said he won't consider increasing bond holdings until the current rate hike cycle ends, adding that China's one-year deposit rate, one of the PBOC's policy interest rates, may rise to 3.5% this year from 3% now.
Separately, Huang said Huaan will consider developing low-risk yuan bond funds for offshore investors with increased holdings of the Chinese currency, as Beijing could soon open the new channel for investment as part of its efforts to internationalize the yuan.
"Many foreign central banks and businesses have yuan holdings and they are eager to invest in China's bond market," he said.
The yuan holdings of overseas businesses have increased after China allowed the yuan to be used to settle cross-border trade and investment in a trial that started in July 2009, as part of the government's moves to eventually turn the yuan into a global currency and reduce the reliance on the U.S. dollar.